Mabinogi Random Number Generator

Mabinogi data collection and analysis!
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Kenero

Mabinogi Random Number Generator

Post by Kenero »

As most Mabinogi players have experienced, the horror of failing a repair, failing to collect, failing to enchant, as well as failing to make an item is a shared pain that many of us question on how it is done.

With the delicious 95~98% repairs that we often experienced and the much sought out 99% on item making, how is it that the Mabinogi Random Number Generator is so unfair? Is there something wrong with it? Or is the computer a lying bast***?

Well, let's look deeper into how unlucky and lucky people are.

When you repair an item, that delicious 95~98% repair rate sounds promising, however, a lot of Mabinogi Players tend to forget that when you repair, it is applied per point. So if you have 16 durability to repair, the dice is rolled 16 times, with anything 95-100 (if repairing at 95%) is a fail. This doesn't seem bad, however reality is, it can fail very easy.

For example, go to this site:

http://www.random.org/

And roll the dice there 30 times.

How much, out of 30 times did you hit 95~100? Were you able to do all 30 times without hitting 95~100 at least once? If you can, can you roll it 60 times in a row without getting 95~100 at least once?

By rolling the numbers yourself and seeing what comes out as a result, hopefully this will enlighten how the Mabinogi Random Number Generator is.

Personally, after using the site to roll... when I rolled 30 times, I failed 2-3 times.

When I tried to roll 60 times, I failed roughly 9~10 times.

Here is another generator for your convenience:

http://www.mathgoodies.com/calculators/ ... ustom.html
Kapra

Re: [Info] Mabinogi Random Number Generator

Post by Kapra »

Since the Best Cylinder repair is 97% and the secondary option is 90%, I tested with those. Out of sixty, I've gotten 0 in and over 97+ and 4 in and over 90+. However, that's still random. I was thinking about this myself (especially after failing a Wave Sweeper at 45%...), but are you sure it works like this or does the game uses a different system but shows it in the form of a percent?
Yuneiko

Re: [Info] Mabinogi Random Number Generator

Post by Yuneiko »

In b4 people can't differentiate between independent and dependent probabilities

gotta love gambling
shadofrak

Re: [Info] Mabinogi Random Number Generator

Post by shadofrak »

i dont exactly understand what the whole atmospheric noise thing on random.org is talking about...

btw java is dumb; generator.nextInt(10) gives you a random integer 1-9...
Kenero

Re: [Info] Mabinogi Random Number Generator

Post by Kenero »

Pyro wrote:Since the Best Cylinder repair is 97% and the secondary option is 90%, I tested with those. Out of sixty, I've gotten 0 in and over 97+ and 4 in and over 90+. However, that's still random. I was thinking about this myself (especially after failing a Wave Sweeper at 45%...), but are you sure it works like this or does the game uses a different system but shows it in the form of a percent?
It's every durability individually. If you have 16 durability to repair, it rolls it 16 times, with each durability being rolled individually to see if it succeeds or not.
Kapra

Re: [Info] Mabinogi Random Number Generator

Post by Kapra »

Kenero wrote:
Pyro wrote:Since the Best Cylinder repair is 97% and the secondary option is 90%, I tested with those. Out of sixty, I've gotten 0 in and over 97+ and 4 in and over 90+. However, that's still random. I was thinking about this myself (especially after failing a Wave Sweeper at 45%...), but are you sure it works like this or does the game uses a different system but shows it in the form of a percent?
It's every durability individually. If you have 16 durability to repair, it rolls it 16 times, with each durability being rolled individually to see if it succeeds or not.
That wasn't what I meant. I meant, maybe it doesn't work like we think it does, it might be something completely different, however, they just put a percent's name on it. For example, I have done over 100 repairs with Jenna's 80% Blacksmith Repairs, and I have never lost a durability. Like how they just put a really expensive repair cost but give it to you for free.
Kenero

Re: [Info] Mabinogi Random Number Generator

Post by Kenero »

Pyro wrote:
Kenero wrote:
Pyro wrote:Since the Best Cylinder repair is 97% and the secondary option is 90%, I tested with those. Out of sixty, I've gotten 0 in and over 97+ and 4 in and over 90+. However, that's still random. I was thinking about this myself (especially after failing a Wave Sweeper at 45%...), but are you sure it works like this or does the game uses a different system but shows it in the form of a percent?
It's every durability individually. If you have 16 durability to repair, it rolls it 16 times, with each durability being rolled individually to see if it succeeds or not.
That wasn't what I meant. I meant, maybe it doesn't work like we think it does, it might be something completely different, however, they just put a percent's name on it. For example, I have done over 100 repairs with Jenna's 80% Blacksmith Repairs, and I have never lost a durability. Like how they just put a really expensive repair cost but give it to you for free.
It would be wholly on luck.

I was enchanting before and I had people who brought me Spike, Stamps, Shadow Hunters, Avengers, etc. enchants with low potential succeed them first try.

I had roughly 11 people in less than 10 minutes succeeded in enchanting when their per enchant was 33% (with rank 5 enchants). Is the Mabinogi random number generator off?

It's weird... when the system fails to give players successes many times when the odds are for them (failing at 80~99% 5-6x in a row), they blame it on the Mabinogi Random Generator.

Yet when someone succeeds many times when the odd is against them (such as training Mana Crystallization and succeeding 5-6x in a row with the odds of success is 22%), they attribute it to them being "lucky" and rarely say, "Hey, the mabinogi number generator must be broken, I succeeded 6 times at 22%, it must be messed up."

It's really a double standard.

I repaired at Jenna before and she failed a few points off me. Your personal luck with Jenna may be great but it may not be the same to others.
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